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Gold
Spot gold prices fell around 5 percent in the last week and fell to 34-month low on account of decline in the SPDR gold holdings which has fallen 28 percent this year and is at the lowest level since February 2009. Further, strength in the DX along with uncertainty regarding Fed to pullback its stimulus spending exerted downside pressure on prices. The yellow metal touched a weekly low of $1180.71/oz and closed at $1233.14/oz in last trading session of the week.
In the Indian markets, prices ended on a negative note, declining 5 percent. Further, jewelers association decided to stop sales of bars and coins and support government in reducing CAD also acted as a negative factor. The commodity closed at Rs.25598/10 gms on Friday after touching a low of Rs. 24830/10 gms in the last week.
Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust fell further to 969.5 tonnes on 28th June'13, falling to the lowest level since February 2009. Over the year, SPDR Gold Trust holdings have declined 29 percent, with further pullback in holdings expected as investors shun the yellow metal.
Silver
Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with mixed performance in the base metals complex, Spot silver prices fell around 2.3 percent in the last week. Additionally, strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on the prices. The white metal touched a weekly low of $18.19/oz and closed at $19.61/oz in last trade of the week.
On the domestic front, prices fell 2.5 percent and closed at Rs.40,461/kg on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs.38,536/kg.
Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust fell 0.8 percent last week to 9906 tonnes. However, on Monday the fund witnessed a sharp decline of 2 percent in holdings that slipped to 9882 tonnes and then recovered over the week. Month-to-date, iShares Silver Trust Holdings fell around 1 percent and year-to-date are down about 2 percent
Spot gold prices fell around 5 percent in the last week and fell to 34-month low on account of decline in the SPDR gold holdings which has fallen 28 percent this year and is at the lowest level since February 2009. Further, strength in the DX along with uncertainty regarding Fed to pullback its stimulus spending exerted downside pressure on prices. The yellow metal touched a weekly low of $1180.71/oz and closed at $1233.14/oz in last trading session of the week.
In the Indian markets, prices ended on a negative note, declining 5 percent. Further, jewelers association decided to stop sales of bars and coins and support government in reducing CAD also acted as a negative factor. The commodity closed at Rs.25598/10 gms on Friday after touching a low of Rs. 24830/10 gms in the last week.
Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust fell further to 969.5 tonnes on 28th June'13, falling to the lowest level since February 2009. Over the year, SPDR Gold Trust holdings have declined 29 percent, with further pullback in holdings expected as investors shun the yellow metal.
Silver
Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with mixed performance in the base metals complex, Spot silver prices fell around 2.3 percent in the last week. Additionally, strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on the prices. The white metal touched a weekly low of $18.19/oz and closed at $19.61/oz in last trade of the week.
On the domestic front, prices fell 2.5 percent and closed at Rs.40,461/kg on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs.38,536/kg.
Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust fell 0.8 percent last week to 9906 tonnes. However, on Monday the fund witnessed a sharp decline of 2 percent in holdings that slipped to 9882 tonnes and then recovered over the week. Month-to-date, iShares Silver Trust Holdings fell around 1 percent and year-to-date are down about 2 percent
Outlook
Precious metals prices in today's trade are expected to trade higher taking cues from bounce back in Friday's trade and is expected to continue today also on account of supportive buying seen at lower levels. However, decline in SPDR holdings will cap sharp gains in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will support an upside in prices on the MCX.
Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased around 3.1 percent in the last week; taking cues from favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone which increased the expectations of rise in demand for the fuel.
Further, statement from Fed official's that stimulus spending will not be stopped until central banks forecast for inflation and job markets are met supported an upside in prices in first half of the week. However, reemergence of concerns regarding cut in the bond buying program capped gains in prices. Crude oil prices touched a weekly high of $97.82/bbl and closed at $96.56/bbl in last trading session of the week.
On the domestic bourses, prices gained 3.4 percent as a result of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.5,806/bbl on Friday after touching a high of Rs.5,867/bbl in the last week.
Natural Gas
On a weekly basis, Nymex natural gas prices declined around 6.3 percent on the back of more than expected rise in US natural gas inventories. Further, stronger DX exerted downside pressure on the prices.
However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on account of forecast for warm weather conditions which will lead to increase in demand for air conditioners. Gas prices touched a weekly low of $3.526/mmbtu and closed at $3.566/mmbtu in last trade of the week.
In the Indian markets, prices fell around 5.2 percent and closed at Rs.215.30/mmbtu on Friday after touching a low of Rs.211.60/mmbtu in the last week.
Outlook
From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of decline in China's manufacturing data coupled with weak global markets. Further, expectations of rise in Euro Zone unemployment rate will exert downside pressure on prices.
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