Wednesday, 26 June 2013

GOLD SILVER CRUDEOIL AND NATURAL GAS DAILY REVIEW FOR TODAY 26-JUN

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Gold

Spot gold prices fell around 1.2 percent in the yesterday's trading session on acc ount of strength in the DX. Further, concerns about the Fed plans for reduction in its bond buying program also exerted dow nside pressure on the prices. Additionally, weak global markets coupled with fall in SPDR holdings which is at lowest level since February 2009 acted as a negative factor. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $1275.74/oz and closed at $1281.30/oz in yesterday's trading session.


In the Indian markets, prices ended on a negative note, declining 0.8 percent. The commodity closed at Rs.26725/10 gms after touching a low of Rs. 26650/10 gms on Monday. Depreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp fall in prices on the MCX.


Silver

Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in the base metals group, Spot silver prices fell around 2.1 percent in the yesterday's trade. Further, strength in the DX along with weak global markets added downside pressure on the prices. The white metal touched an intra-day low of $19.43/oz and closed at $19.70/oz in yesterday's trade.

On the domestic front, prices fell 1.6 percent and closed at Rs.40,834/kg after touching a low of Rs.40,570/kg on Monday. Depreciation in the Rupee provided some respite to fall in prices on the MCX.



Outlook

From the intra-day perspective, we expect precious metals to trade lower on the back of weak global markets. Further, a stronger DX will act as a negative factor.

In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will provide respite to fall in prices. Further, investment demand for gold on the domestic front will take a hit and figures in the coming month will show a decline trend as a result of measures taken by jewellers association to support government and curb the CAD. Jewellery demand will be majorly dependent on the wedding and festive demand coming ahead.

Crude Oil

Nymex crude oil prices increased around 1.6 percent in the yesterday's trade; taking cues from shutdown of three pipelines by Enbridge Oil Corporation which ships crude oil from Canada to US. This created supply concerns and supported an upside in the oil prices.

Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $95.59/bbl and closed at $95.20/bbl in yesterday's trading session. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of strength in the DX coupled with economic growth concerns from China which is world's second largest consumer of crude oil.

On the domestic bourses, prices gained 1.6 percent as a result of depreciation in the Rupee. The commodity closed at Rs.5,702/bbl after touching a high of Rs.5,722/bbl on Monday.


API Inventories Forecast

The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 2 million barrels for the week ending on 21st June 2013.

Gasoline stocks are expected to gain by 0.8 million barrels and distillate inventories are expected to shoot up by 1.3 million barrels for the same week.


Outlook

From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of expectations of decline in API crude oil inventories. Further, shutdown in the three pipelines by Enbridge Oil Corporation will also support an upside in oil prices. However, strength in the DX coupled with weak global markets will cap sharp gain in prices. Also weak economic data in evening session from US can add downside pressure on prices.

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